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Badly calculated

26 May, 2010 (18:42) | elections, federal states, parties | By: Aerar

(German version published on 25 April, 2010)

“Nach der aktuellen Umfrage von tns Emnid im Auftrag des Magazins “Focus” kommt die CDU NRW bei der Sonntagsfrage zur Landtagswahl am 9. Mai auf 38 Prozent. Die SPD hingegen liegt bei 34 Prozent, Die Grünen bei 11 Prozent, die FDP bei 8 Prozent und die Linkspartei bei 6 Prozent. Das zeigt klar: Schwarz-Gelb ist weiter vor Rot-Grün!“ (my translation: “Following a recent poll of tns Emnid for the magazine “Focus” the CDU in Nordrehinwestpfalen will get 38 percent of the votes in the election on May 9th. The SPD would gain 34 percent, Die Grünen 11 percent, the FDP 8 percent and the Linkspartei 6 percent. This shows clearly: The black and yellow coalition is clearly in front of red and green“), says the CDU NRW Blog.

This seems wrong for several reasons. One reason of course is that the value of such polls generally have to be questioned. Especially here only one specific poll has been picked. In addition it is the question whether the one percent which is stated would count for an additional seat in parliament. Maybe but there is nothing said about that.

It would not make really sense anyway as not even this postulated percent could be trusted in this prognosis. Here are obviously rounded values which are used which do allow different interpretation as well. Like:

SPD: 34,4% (rounded: 34%)
Grün: 11,4% (rounded: 11%)
Together: 45,8% (rounded: 46%)

CDU: 37,6% (rounded: 38%)
FDP: 7,6% (rounded: 8%)
Together: 45,2% (for the friends of the CDU NRW rounded 45%)

This simple statistic mistakes happen all the time and could maybe be excused if they would not rely on the CDU Landesverband Nordrhein-Westfalen as follows from the contact data. How shall a party manage the budget of a federal country if it is not even able to interprete a poll correctly? Even if its post were statiscally correct it only shows how afraid the party is of losing the elections and which little advantages are taken as a success.

Nevertheless I would not bet that the other parties would have done it better.