Aerar

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Forecast of the election

26 September, 2009 (16:55) | editorial, elections | By: Aerar

I have to admit that I do not know exactly how an professional opinion poll is done. There I don’t want to focus the casting of the sample of respondents but the act of questioning itself. I imagine that the selected persons are confronted with a question like: “Which party would you vote for assuming there would be an election now?” As in the results the votes for the parties give a total of 100% the non-voters obviously are neglected.

But I assume that there will be quite more non-voters in the coming Bundestag election than usual. This is because the options seem to allow a government of a coalition of CDU/CSU with the FPD (“black-yellow coalition”) or of the CDU/CSU with the SPD (“great coalition”). Many voters of the CDU/CSU and of the SPD will probably assume that the result is almost clear: CDU/CSU will govern in any case. Whether with the SPD or with the SPD mainly depends on the results of the FDP. As they can’t influence the result of the FDP directly their stimulation for voting is lower. So I think many “opinion poll voters” of this parties will actually turn out to be non-voters on the Sunday election. Potential voters of the FDP on the other hand should be highly motivated as they have a realistic chance becoming part of the government after a long time again. So it is likely that they really will participate in the elections. Tzhe chances for Die Grünen or even Die Linke seem much smaller but they will participate also by a higher degree than the voters of the main parties. As well will all other parties – often called as “protest parties” have a much better result than official prognosises assume.

So despite of the simultaneous elections in the (lower populated) federal countries of Schleswig-Holstein and Brandenburg I dare a prognosis:

Participation: 71,5% (from which 3,4% will be invalid)

CDU/CSU: 30,2 %
SPD: 22,4 %
Die Grünen: 11,6 %
FDP: 15,2 %
Die Linke: 13,1 %
Other: 7,5 %