Aerar

When looking at the current polls on the elections to the German Bundestag the decision seems not too clear yet. We shall not forget the victory of the SPD under Gerhard Schröder against Edmund Stoiber in 2002. Like then it now does not look to bright for the SPD. The recent results of Forsa (other institutes are likewise) are:
CDU/CSU 37%, SPD 24%, FDP 12%, Grüne 11%, Linke 10%, Sonstige 6%

By pure arithmetic this makes six alternatives possible:

Black-Yellow: seems agreed if the votes will be enough. Even though Angela Merkel does not seem that enthusiastic as Guido Westerwelle is about.
Black-Red (”Great Coalition”): the most possible alternative if Black-Yellow lacks the needed number of votes. This is not alone indicated by the friendly behavior of the two candidates at the TV duell. Even some prominent party members seem not to be too unhappy about that *
Black-Green: maybe an alternativ if Die Grünen could outdistance the FDP decidingly
Red-Yellow-Green(”Traffic-Light”): will be hindered by the relation of FDP and Die Grünen, in addition the remarks of Guido Westerwelle seem quite clear **
Red-Red-Green: Even though the discrepances between Die Linken and the SPD have lowered it would still lead to a breaking of promise ***
Black-Yellow-Green (”Jamaica”): as well Die Grünen and the FDP won’t be likely to do that ****

* Peer Steinbrück 15.09.2009: “Wir suchen nicht die Große Koalition, schließen sie aber nicht aus.” (german)

** Guido Westerwelle 17.09.2009: „Wir setzen auf schwarzgelb und genau das werden wir bei unserem Parteitag am Sonntag auch beschließen. (german)

*** Franz Müntefering 31.08.2009: Auch wenn in Thüringen und im Saarland die Möglichkeit zu rot-rot-grünen Bündnissen bestehen, für den Bund gelte „die klare Ansage“: „Es wird dort eine Zusammenarbeit mit den Linken nicht geben“, sagte Müntefering. „Bis 2013 kann sich da nichts tun zwischen der SPD und der Linken auf Bundesebene.“ (german)

**** Claudia Roth 10.05.2009: Ausgeschlossen werden sollte lediglich eine Koalition mit Union und FDP. „Jamaika bleibt in der Karibik“, sagte Roth. Die Grünen seien nicht Mehrheitsbeschaffer für Schwarz-Gelb (german)

Thinking in coalitions of course is a natural result of having a democraty of parties. On the one hand the parties have to care to provide a clear profile and distinguish from the other parties. On the other hand they got the job from their electors to realize the aim which they have stated in their manifestos. But it could be understood that they tend to follow a politic od denial as well, if a coalition would mean to accept too many unwanted goals of an other party. This makes sense. But clear denials before the election has taken place the options of the parties are reduces to a far degree. The elector is forced to vote for coalitions but for parties. At September 27th it seems that the only options are Black-Yellow, Black-Red and maybe Black-Green. Other constellations would mean that made promises would have to be broken. But the elector might have gotten used to this already. But still they have to think of making a strategical vote instead voting for their favourite party.

Tags: Ampel, Claudia Roth, coalition, Guido Westerwelle, Jamaica, Peer Steinbrück