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Absolute miss

29 September, 2008 (15:31) | elections, federal states | By: Aerar

It is done: Bayern has elected. Whole Bayern? Not really, a participation of about 58% of the electors is very low for a trend-setting election. And despite of the intense preliminary news coverage only about 1% more (compared to the last election) of the eligible voters had made their way to the ballot box. The other 42% decided not to support the andangered absolute majority of the CSU.

In consequence the CSU missed their absolute majority. And not only by a fraction but by about 7%, which alone counts nearly the number of votes of the FDP. In total the CSU lost about 17% compared to their last result: Results (german, graphics)

But as well the SPD has lost, though just about 1% of total votes. Nevertheless they stated to be happy. though it stays a secret why. Consequently there have to be other parties who did win and there were much how did: Die Grünen, FDP,  Freie Wähler, Die Linke and also the pool of other parties. Die Grünen will be in the parliament again and the FDP and the Freie Wähler made their way as new members.

With those new parties in parliament the CSU as well loses their absolute majority of representatives. That animated SPD vice Florian Pronold to calculate a possible coalition of the four minor parties (german). But such coalition would overstrain the made statement of the electors. governing yes, autarchy no, seems to be a more reasonable interpretation of the assignment made by the electors to the CSU.

The question remains, which party will become their partner then. It surely will not be the SPD, as this copy of the “great coalition” of Berlin were the wrong signal of the conservatives for the next Bundestag elections. The relation with Die Grünen seems not to be at it’s best (german) as well and them working together in a coalition with CSU must be doubted. Dealing with the Freie Wähler non-Bavarians would most probably need to take a look to their objectives (german) first as they assumedly less know outside of Bayern. But inside of Bayern as well I did not notice too much actions by them which might make them a tame partner for the CSU. On the contrary the FDP already announced making trouble to the politic of the “great coalition” in Berlin via the Bundesrat. But this does not meen to be all bad for the CDU/CSU as this threat seems to point even more against the other partner: the SPD.

All in all, the CSU want away with two black eyes. The expected loss of the absolute majority has been larger than feared. But a strong coalition, assumedly with the FDP, allows continiuing the government at normal level. As an extra gift the SPD has lost votes as well and the unloved Die Linke did not make it into parliament.